Super Rugby round 6 kicks off on Friday 31st March with the Highlanders playing the Rebels at Dunedin. Round 6 presents a number of interesting opportunities for punters to bet on, all of which we shall discuss below. We went 3-1 last week and this week we hope to improve on our winning record, this is TheSportFreak’s complete Super Rugby week 6 betting preview, free for you to enjoy, good luck!
Highlanders vs Rebels
The Rebels are coming off a disheartening loss where the Waratahs came back in the final seconds to steal an away win over the Rebels. There has been nothing to smile about for the Melbourne based franchise this season, with the Rebels still waiting to record their first win, something which will certainly not happen this weekend.
On the other side of the Tasman, you have the Highlanders, who like the Rebels sits dead last in their conference. With that being said don’t let the table standings deceive you. The Highlanders are playing in a much more competitive conference and their 3 losses come against quality opponents, all of which they took deep into the match.
Highlanders vs Rebels Odds
While it might be easy to pick a winner for the Highlanders vs Rebels, it is not quite as easy to pick a winner against the spread. The bookies have opened the match with a spread (handicap) of a whopping 23-points. The odds for a straight Rebels win is as long as it gets with @13.00 offered for a straight win. Below you can see the full odds for the above match courtesy of www.betway.co.za
Highlanders vs Rebels Prediction
We are not going to dig much deeper into this match, readers who follow TheSportFreak will know that as a general rule of thumb we do not bet on matches with such a large spread between teams, however, this match is an exception.
The Rebels have just been awful this year, they have nothing to offer on attack and their defense will get destroyed by an innovative, power packed, Highlanders team.
The weather is expected to be clear in Dunedin on Friday night with no rain on the cards, thus, allowing the Highlanders to run the ball. Something which the Rebels will not be able to defend against. Expect the Highlanders to break away early, providing the Highlanders don’t get too comfortable with their lead they are likely to take it with 30+ points.
Recommended Bet: Highlanders -22.5 (Confidence: Very High)
Blues vs Western Force
The second match of Super Rugby round 6, is a complete mismatch, while it might not make for pretty viewing, we will definitely get involved from a betting perspective. Tana Umaga is working wonders with his young Blues team, a team that is improving each week.
On the contrary, the Western Force are all over the place, with SANZAR likely to announce the axing off the Force from next year’s tournament, the threat of unemployment is looming in the Force’s locker room. Combine that with only a single win in 5 matches, one quickly come to the conclusion that this is one demoralized group of players. We correctly predicted last week that the Western Force will get blown away, and we are predicting exactly the same this week, against an arguably tougher opponent.
Blues vs Western Force Odds
Betway is offering a pretty generous spread on this match with a spread of 17.5-points. Needless to say, the straight up bet offers no value, so we will go and place a handicap bet on this match, a bet which we feel pretty confident about.
Blues vs Western Force Prediction
The Force lost by 28-points last week against the Crusaders. The Blues have a very similar playing style to the Crusaders so expect more of the same. The bookies set the line at 15-points last week and it looks like they have not learned their lesson, money to be made on this one folks!
Recommended Bet: Highlanders -22.5 (Confidence: Very High)
Bulls vs Chiefs
It’s hard to know what to make of the Bulls this season. While they (the Bulls) look good on paper, their on-field performance has been bad. The Pretoria based franchise are currently in a rebuilding phase, however, they are yet to start showing signs of their “new game-plan” coming together. On the contrary, the Chiefs have been nothing short of spectacular, having lost only a single match thus far. The Chiefs look like the real deal and are starting to make a strong claim for yet another Super Rugby title.
Bulls vs Chiefs Odds
As any seasoned punter should know its all about finding the “value bet”. The spread has been set at 18.5-points. While they Bulls have been poor in all their matches thus far, one should ask yourself are the Bulls really 19-points bad?
Why The Bulls can cover the spread
The Bulls are the one team which we consistently burned our fingers with this year. Individually the Bulls have a solid team, however, as can clearly be seen by their on-field play, they lack cohesion. Their new game-plan, which tries to move away from the traditional 10-man style, shows some signs of improvement but overall it is still pretty sloppy.
The Bulls lost by 24 points last week (failing to cover the spread) however the score is slightly deceiving, it is only in the last 20-minutes that the Blues started to pull away. It is the Bulls second week in New Zealand. They now had time to acclimatize and we expect them to be much more competitive this week. Although a win is still very unlikely, the spread sits pretty at 19-points.
Bulls vs Chiefs Prediction
The Bulls are on offer @9.00 for a straight win. While the Bulls have not won in New Zealand since 2013, having lost 10 straight matches in New Zealand since 2013, one just can’t help to shake that feeling that “this is the game” where the Bulls will start to click and snap that 10 match losing streak. While we don’t recommend our readers to do the same, we will make a straight up wager on the Bulls for this game. A R100 returns R900, worth a punt…
Recommended Bet: Take a risk, Bulls @9.00 (confidence: very low)
Stormers vs Cheetahs
The Stormers are yet to lose a match this season sitting on top the South African Super Rugby table with a perfect 4 from 4 thus far. With that being said, the quality of opposition the Stormers faced until thus far has been nothing short of mediocre. Recording wins over the Kings & Bulls at home, while struggling to win against a poor Sunwolves team is certainly nothing to write home about.
The Cheetahs will perhaps be the Stormers toughest challenge in their upcoming round 6 fixture. The Cheetahs are a team who has shown moments of brilliance but fails to consistently play well. If the Cheetahs had not been the poaching ground for the larger Super Rugby franchises one can’t help but wonder how different things might have been for the Bloemfontein franchise although that is SA rugby politics which we shan’t discuss here.
Stormers vs Cheetahs Odds
This is a difficult match to bet on, a “trap match”. While the Cheetahs are very tempting at @4.50 and certainly have the firepower to blow the Stormers away, they are just not a reliable enough team for us to invest our money with. With that being said, the Stormers at @1.22 presents little to no value. The handicap is set at 9.5-points although we can’t help to feel that, should the Stormers win, they will be by more than 10, the question is will they win?
The Cheetahs are coming off a close loss against the Sharks, and it is often after a loss that the unpredictable Cheetahs are at their most dangerous. As mentioned above all the Stormers opponents have been mediocre, so we just don’t trust them either. Rather put your money in your back pocket for this one and move on.
Recommended Bet: Skip too unpredictable
Lions vs Sharks Super Rugby Round 6 Preview
In what should be an entertaining South African derby, the Sharks will travel to Joburg in a South African prime time Super Rugby fixture. Things are tight in the Africa2 conference, and considering 2nd placed Jaguares are on a bye for round 6, the Sharks can jump to the top of the conference past their 1st placed opponents. Thus, there will certainly be no lack of motivation for this match.
The Lions have lost only a single match until now, against the Jaguares, away from home. However, when you look at the Lions results at home they have been brutal to visiting teams with a winning margin of +20 points. Yes, we are expecting home field advantage to play a huge role here.
Lions vs Sharks Odds
The bookmakers are pretty much spot on with this one. As can be seen from image below, the Lions are @1.25 favorites and the spread is set at 8.5 points.
We will make our wager as close to kickoff time as possible since we feel that the spread is a little too high and we are hoping it will drop to -7.5-points. Let us say straight up we are expecting the Lions to win and cover the spread in this round 6 fixture, here is why:
Why The Lions Will Win & Cover / Important Statistics
- The Lions are currently the team who scored the 2nd most tries in Super Rugby with 28.
- The Lions are averaging just over 5 tries a match!
- The Sharks, contrary to the Lions, are one of the teams who scored the fewest tries in the competition.With only 14-tries in 5 matches, the Durban based franchise are really struggling to get passed the try line.
- The Sharks are averaging just over 2 tries per match.
- In terms of defense the Sharks are the second best defensive team in the competition with a tackle success rate of 87.1, however, the Lions are not far behind on 84.5, Thus, defense will not play a significant role.
- The Sharks lost their captain Patrick Lambie in round 4. In an important fixture like this, we expect Laramie’s loss to really get emphasized, especially since the Sharks backline is sorely lacking in experience.
- Home field advantage will certainly come into play, and we will give the traditional +3 points for the home team. The last time the Sharks managed to win at Ellis Park was way back in 2014.
Lions vs Sharks Prediction
With all things considered it is the Lions who are playing a style of rugby which all other South African franchises are still trying to perfect. Combine that with the fact that the Lions are simply a better team than the Sharks and having home field advantage, we are expecting a Lions put at least 10-points past the Sharks.
Recommended Bet: Lions to win with 12+ (Confidence: Very High)
Do you agree with our predictions? Drop us a comment below to let us know who you are picking.