Super Rugby round 5 kicks off on Friday 24 March with the Western Force Playing the Crusaders at Christchurch. While Super Rugby might be at an all time low, with dwindling viewing numbers and serious lack of interest from viewers you can add the excitment back into it by making a couple of wagers on the upcoming Super Rugby round. Below we will give our tips & predictions (we are pretty damn accurate) on the upcoming matches for Super Rugby round 5, enjoy!
Crusaders vs Force Prediction
As mentioned in the intro the Force will travel to New Zealand for round 5 to take on the high flying Crusaders who looks like serious title contenders at the moment.
Can the Force upset the Crusaders? Absolutely not! Most will agree that the Force have little to no chance of beating the Crusaders. So, while it might be easy to pick a winner, it is not so easy to pick a winner against the spread (with a handicap).
Crusaders vs Force Odds.
The Bookmakers have set the handicap at a whopping 19-points at odds of @1.91. Thus if you place a wager on this match you can either choose the Crusaders at -19 points or the Force with +19 points. If you choose the Crusaders at -19 they will need to win with more than 19 points for your wager to be successful, while the opposite is true if you choose the Force.
As a general rule of thumb we tend to not bet on matches with such a large point spread between the two teams. With that being said the Force have been extraordinary poor so far this season, with a possible axing from Super Rugby disrupting their preparation and focus. Thus, we will be making a wager on this match choosing the Crusaders at -19 points.
The Crusaders have a ridiculously good backline which will likely cut like a knife through butter against a poor Western Force defense with a tackle success rate of below 80%! If that is not enough the Force have no attack of their own to counter their poor defense having scored only 6 tries in 3-matches.
Recommended Bet: Crusaders -19 @ 1.91 through Sportingbet South Africa, click here to bet and claim a bonus if you are a new customer. Confidence (HIGH)
Rebels vs Waratahs Prediction
The New South Wales Waratahs will be traveling cross country to take on the Melbourne Rebels who is yet to win a single game this season. Like the Force the Rebels have some serious problems happening behind the season with a possible axing from Super Rugby in 2018.
Rebels vs Waratahs Odds & Handicap
The Bookies have set a handicap of -7 points in favour of the away team for the Rebels vs Waratahs match at odds of @1.91 meaning theoretically the Waratahs will start this match with -7 points.
Should you prefer NOT to make a handicap bet you can make a straight bet which might present some value. The home team, Rebels, are on offer at odds of @ 3.75 while the visiting Waratahs are on offer at @1.37 for a straight win, not bad, and big betters might be licking their lips at those odds.
We will definitely get involved in this match, and bet BIG. Consider some of the following statistics cutesy of SANZAR rugby. The rebels have:
- Only scored 3 tries in 3 matches
- Conceded a whopping 57 turnovers in their 3 matches averaging 20 turnovers per game.
- The Rebels have missed 95 tackles in 3 matches (which is more than 30 per match WOW) with a tackle success rate of only 74.6
With the above considered we will be, betting large on the Waratahs. While the Waratahs have not set the tournament alight and have been pretty poor themselves they certainly have the weapons to blow the Rebels away!
We don’t believe home field advantage will be a significant advantage for the Rebels since their stadium has been empty throughout the season and is only getting worse along with their on field performance.
With that being said it is a derby and the Rebels have a tendency to surprise at times. While we don’t believe the Rebels will win they might lose with less than 7 points, thus we will skip the handicap bet and place a straight bet on the Waratahs to win @1.37 so when we place a R1000 zar on the Waratahs we will get a return of approx R400, which should be a relatively easy win.
Recommended Bet: Waratahs straight win @ 1.37 Confidence(Very High)
Blues vs Bulls Prediction
We are not going to dig to deep into this match, since the Bulls have just been plain bad for the past 2-seasons, and they are at serious risk turning into a mediocre franchise with their lack of progression and ability to adapt to modern rugby.
The home team, the Bulls, are the exact opposite. Blues coach Tana Umanga, is doing a great job with the Blues and while they have only won 1 match out of their last 4 they were in each of those match combined with the fact that they are playing in the most competitive conference in Super Rugby.
Blues vs Bulls Statistics.
With that being said when one looks at the statistics, you just might find some value in the Bulls, despite their poor play:
- The Bulls have Scored 11 tries in 3 matches, while the Blues have scored 13 in 4 matches
- The Bulls are looking after their own ball having conceded significantly less turnovers compared to the Blues
- All other important statistics which you can view here are pretty evenly matched.
With that being said the Bulls have mostly been playing mediocre opponents so while the Bulls might be going toe to toe with the Blues in the statistical department, those statistic might be slightly skewed when considering the quality of opponents.
Add to the mix the fact that the Bulls have not won in New Zealand for a number of years, it suddenly makes sense why the Bookmakers, who rarely get it wrong, are offering the Bulls @5.00 for a straight win.
However, upsets do happen, and the Blues although in a rebuilding phase are slightly unpredictable, and the result may very well depend which Blues team shows up on the day. Thus, we will be taking a true gamble and make a small wager on the Bulls. R200 returns you a R1000 for a straight Bulls win so it might very well be worth a punt.
Blues vs Bulls Odds
The odds for Bulls Blues match is set as follows:
- Straight Bulls win @5.00
- Straight Blues Win @1.10
- Handicap -7 points
As mentioned we will be taking a real gamble on a straight up Bulls win since that straight up win odds are pretty tempting, however we certainly don’t recommended our readers to do the same.
Recommended Bet: Blues -7 points @1.91 (Confidence Medium)
Sunwolves vs Stormers
The Stormers will travel to Singapore for their away fixture against the struggling Sunwolves. Astonishingly in the same fixture last year the Stormers jumped out of the gate early and looked liked putting a 100-points past the Sunwolves, only to stop playing in the second half, with the match ending in a draw. This is always a problem with mismatched teams, interns of picking a spread. Once they start getting ahead they tend to take their foot of the petal. This is exactly why we mentioned earlier as a general rule of thumb we don’t bet games where the spread is to high, which is exactly what this game is and we wont touch it with an ugly stick.
Stormers vs Sunwolves odds.
The odds for the Stormers Sunwolves Singaporean fixture reads as follows:
- Handicap: 20-points
- Straight Win: Stormers @1.073 Sunwolves @ 7.00
The Stormers picked largely a second string team to play the Wolves which might turn out to be a smart move, since they might be slightly more motivated for this fixture compared to the first team. One would think the Stormers would have learned their lesson from last years fixture, but we are simply not comfortable picking the Stormers at -20 nor are we comfortable picking the Sunwolves at +20
Recommended Bet: Skip this match & don’t touch it with an ugly stick.
Check Back Soon For the Other Half Of Our Super Rugby Round 5 Predictions