It all comes down to this, the mini-series finale between Ireland and South Africa will conclude at the Nelson Mandela Bay stadium in Port Elizabeth, even though this is considered an international friendly the importance of match 3 should not be underestimated, in the context of South African rugby going forward!
For Ireland, a historical first ever test series victory against South Africa is at stake. The Springboks also have everything to play for, except for defending the pride of the embattled Springbok jersey, it is absolutely crucial for Allister Coetzee and his troops to get a victory in order to build up some much-needed confidence, as the all important Rugby Championship is looming ever closer.
So who will walk away with the spoils, does Ireland have enough left in the tank, or will the Springboks suddenly find their rhythm and finally start looking like a team? This is The Sport Freaks Rugby Preview for South Africa vs Ireland Match 3
Rugby Betting Preview Ireland VS South Africa Match 3 – 2016
Except for injury-enforced changes, Allister Coetzee has resisted making any major changes for match 3 and is largely sticking with the same players who have started in the previous 2 matches. While we applaud Coetzee’s faith in his starting lineup, a serious question needs to be asked and that is, are these players good enough to compete and win against the Irish? We will soon find out….
Ireland vs South Africa – A Look At The Statistics & Strategies
In the previous two test matches, South Africa tried to keep the ball alive at all cost something which didn’t work too well for them. In the two test matches played thus far, South Africa has a whopping 100-more carries than Ireland, yet despite this, they have little to show for it!
Allister Coetzee wants his ball carriers to be more compact and blames the Springboks inability to get over the advantage line on the upright nature of ball carriers, this is rather concerning, since..this is something which should be perfected at high school level already.
Whether Coetzee is right about the body position of his ball carriers is debatable, what is not debatable is the Springboks inability to cross the advantage line, break through the defence and score tries.
We have written extensively about Allister Coetzee’s inability to play attacking rugby and we have been right up until now. South Africa, under Coetzee and Stick, are trying to play attacking rugby they are trying to modernise South African rugby but it is having a disastrous effect.
Coetzee wants to see more offloads from his players, which is fine…BUT you can’t offload the ball when you are being driven back in contact something which is consistently happening with South African ball carriers.
In the two test matches combined South Africa had 15 offloads against Ireland’s 7, however, this came at a cost for South Africa, having made a whopping 39 handling errors! That is 39 turnovers to the opposition due to poor handling and/or passing!
It is all very simple for Ireland, they are happy to settle in on defence, simply waiting for South Africa to make a mistake, which has worked fantastically well for the visitors this far.
If the above stat didn’t make you sick, here is an even worse one, for South African supporter. In the two test played this far South Africa could only manage a meagre 3-turnovers while Ireland…made a whopping 19 turnovers on South African ball! Combining handling errors and turnovers from broken play South Africa had lost the ball 58 times, which means the Springboks are conceding almost 30 turnovers per match!
On defence, something which Allister Coetzee prides himself on, the Springboks have missed 19 tackles compared to 14 by Ireland. If results were determined by statistics then South Africa would have been down 0-2, since Ireland have been beating South Africa in all major aspects of the game, which proofs our point made earlier in the week – had it not been for some individual brilliance, and a bit of luck South Africa would have lost the 2nd test.
Can South Africa Win Against Ireland in match 3?
When considering the above, even the most loyal of Springbok supporter, can’t deny that the ball is firmly in Ireland’s court for match 3. We will go out on a limb and say if the Springboks continue with the tactics they used in the previous two matches they WILL lose, and we are willing to put money on that!
However, as South African supporters let’s hope Allister Coetzee has learned from mistakes made in the previous two matches. A South African victory is not impossible, providing they make some major tactical changes, here is what needs to get done.
South Africa needs to play to their strengths. They have a good forward pack and an inexperienced backline. It might be ugly, but for the time being the Boks need to return to good ol’ 10 man style rugby. That is they need to kick strategically smart and avoid playing inside their own half at all cost since that is where Ireland have been able to capitalise.
Coetzee should do what he is renowned for, play defensive rugby! Give the ball to Ireland, let the Springboks settle in on defence, and force Ireland to make the mistake. If South Africa can do the above, and do this inside Ireland’s half of the field they can either chip away with 3-pointers or exploit the mistakes with counter attacks.
We are not saying let the backline be spectators but leave the fancy stuff for now. Stop forcing the ball wide, stop forcing offloads, simply return to basics, play inside the Irish half, and when the time is right start moving the ball…rugby 1-0-1 really.
Ireland vs South Africa Prediction
In the introduction to this post, we asked whether the South African team is good enough to win against the Irish. Yes, they are, BUT poor coaching and unorthodox tactics have been the downfall of South Africa in this series.
Coetzee largely stuck with the same starting XV, and all indications are he is going to stick with the same tactics, playing straight into the Irish hands.
Ireland vs South Africa prediction: Ireland to win by 5+ points.
Ireland vs South Africa – What The Bookmakers are saying
If you don’t enjoy punting or online sports betting you can skip this section, however, it still makes for an interesting read.
Are you a betting man – do you enjoy rugby betting, have you been following our advice? If you answered yes, and have been following our betting tips you would be a few grand richer by now, yeah go on say it – “Thank You Sport Freak.”
We use BetVictor when analysing the bookmakers prediction since they are renowned for giving the best odds and there is some serious money to be made here folks.
As can be seen from the image above, the bookies, are (still) heavily favouring South Africa. The bookmakers gets it right more often than not, but we believe they made a big slip up on this one, and punters can cash in BIG TIME!
When setting the odds bookmakers mostly rely on historical results and statistics, which heavily favours South Africa hence South Africa being the favourites for an outright win. What the bookmakers did not put into their equation is that South Africa is no longer the team they used to be and are currently on a downward spiral.
Ireland has beaten South Africa in all aspects of the two matches thus far and the statistics back that up! A South African turnaround, where they start playing as a team and get their strategy right will not happen in a week’s time!
There is absolutely no indication that South Africa are currently a better team than Ireland, who is playing some superb rugby and using exactly the right tactics to outsmart the home team. Furthermore, South Africa won’t have the altitude advantage in match 3, like they did in match 2 when Ireland started to tire in the last 20-minutes.
South Africa VS Ireland Betting Prediction
You have two options:
- Ireland +8 at odds of @ 1.91 (Confidence: 90%)
- Ireland for a straight win at odds of @3.4 (Confidence 65%)
We don’t believe South Africa will win, however being on the cautious side we will take Ireland with a handicap of +8-points @1.91 which will effectively result in an even money payout. Bet R1000 ROI = R1910, an almost guaranteed result. Good Luck!